皇冠体育官网:Computers outperform humans on GDP forecast

皇冠体育官网www.hg108.vip)是一个开放皇冠正网即时比分、皇冠官方的平台。皇冠体育官网(www.hg108.vip)提供最新皇冠登录,皇冠体育官网包含新皇冠体育代理、会员APP,提供皇冠官网代理开户、皇冠官网会员开户业务。

Recession worries: Workers are seen installing a battery onto an electric vehicle in Michigan. The US economy contracted for a second straight quarter, with GDP falling at a 0.9% annualised rate from the first three months of the year. — Reuters

NEED to gain a sense of where US economic growth is now and where it is likely to be in the future?

It might be better to look at calls from largely automated computer models rather than economists, judging by estimates of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) ahead of the acutal results released Thursday.

The US economy contracted for a second straight quarter, with GDP falling at a 0.9% annualised rate from the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department’s preliminary estimate showed.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for expansion of 0.4%, and of the 74 projections by economists, 23 were for a decline.

Forecasts in so-called “nowcast” models, however, were closer to the outcome. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow index, for example, saw a 1.2% decline.

Another similar computer model scored a direct hit: The estimate from S&P Global Market Intelligence, initially conceived by Monetary Policy Analytics Inc – co-founded by former Fed governor Larry Meyer – predicted a 0.9% second-quarter contraction.

Its clients include governments, banks and the Fed itself, which uses the data to glean insight on where the economy is going.

The latest GDP report was closely watched, given that two consecutive quarters of shrinkage is one rule of thumb that many use to gauge whether an economy is in a recession.

,

欧博开户www.aLLbet8.vip)是欧博集团的官方网站。欧博官网开放Allbet注册、Allbe代理、Allbet电脑客户端、Allbet手机版下载等业务。

,

The official determination of ends and beginnings of business cycles is made by a group of academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Nowcast gauges have gained bigger followings as their accuracy improves, and the estimates they produce hew more closely to outcomes as they accumulate data.

GDPNow, for instance, had forecast a 1.8% decline earlier in the week, but adjusted to reflect the 1.2% drop by Wednesday.

The S&P model produces projections that are within about 1.2 percentage points of actual GDP about three months before the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release, with the gap narrowing to about half a percentage point closer to the release date, said Ben Herzon, an executive director at the firm.

We use the “bean-counter method,” said Herzon. “What we do is look at the BEA source data and replicate their methodology.”

The trick is estimating values for the latest month of data that haven’t yet been publicly released, he said.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is largely publicly available and also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth.

One key difference is that it isn’t subject to judgmental adjustments.

“The average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0.84 percentage point,” according to the Atlanta Fed, which emphasises that the result isn’t an official forecast by the bank, its president, the Fed system, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

  • 评论列表:
  •  皇冠手机网址(www.hg108.vip)
     发布于 2022-09-17 00:12:54  回复
  • Telegram中文群组列表www.tel8.vip)是一个Telegram群组分享平台,Telegram中文群组列表包括Telegram中文群组列表、telegram群组索引、Telegram群组导航、新加坡telegram群组、telegram中文群组、telegram群组(其他)、Telegram 美国 群组、telegram群组爬虫、电报群 科学上网、小飞机 怎么 加 群、tg群等内容。Telegram中文群组列表为广大电报用户提供各种电报群组/电报频道/电报机器人导航服务。
    给你我所有的赞美

添加回复:

◎欢迎参与讨论,请在这里发表您的看法、交流您的观点。